Tuesday, May 19, 2015

An Open Letter to Libertarian Candidates on Climate


Part 1. The Lay of the Land. So you’re a libertarian and you’ve come to Iowa because you want to be president. Good idea. And your timing is perfect. There are lots of Republicans in the field, almost all of them right-wing conservative. People who would like to run our lives as they see fit (Christians insisting everyone be Christian), or for the financial benefit of their donors. And no race on the Democratic side, great for drawing in cross-over voters.

        So your message is what? Be a grown up (no nanny state), be responsible for yourself, and don’t tread on me. And small government. And free markets. And freedom to innovate, without burdensome regulation. To think and act for themselves, and not be told what to do.
        People should be allowed to shape their own lives, as they choose, so long as they don’t bring harm to one another. And to marry whomever they choose. (Maybe stay away from that one in the Republican caucuses—there are some Iowa Supreme court justices who went there, and are no longer in office.)
        Still  your message has a definite appeal, to activists of all stripes (both liberal and conservative). Taking action, being individually responsible, playing fair. Who could object? Everyone will read into that what they want.
        But be careful. Things get a bit sticky in practice. Take an issue like climate change.
So many proposals for big government solutions (you can run against that), international agreements (Paris upcoming—the venue is perfect, who doesn’t hate the French?), regulation (make the initials EPA synonymous with IRS and NSA, you can hardly wait).
But it is hard to be honest and still be a denier. And hard to ignore the harm (if there is harm, it is a foul) that scientists predict will result (those alarmist scientists, don’t you just hate it when they come to you with all that evidence that they’re right, or even wrong in the wrong way—things really are worse than we thought).
So what’s a candidate to do? If you say climate change isn’t real, some people (most often the independents and independent-minded democrats, the very people you want to cross-over for you) don’t respect your ability to read the science with comprehension. And joke that you failed 5th grade science. While, if you waffle and hem and haw, the same people say you’re just another politician. Playing to the base, the same base all the other candidates are playing to (so you’re just like them, no longer the libertarian alternative).
But there is a way out.
More about that tomorrow.

1 comment:

  1. For a breakdown of the vote in the Iowa Republican caucuses in 2012, see:

    http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/iowa/exit-polls

    Ron Paul's support came from young, low income (so far), independents concerned with the deficit (a long term issue linked to the future) and the economy.

    They committed early, were looking for a true conservative, and were passionate about the candidate (strong supporters).

    Neutral on the Tea Party, the pro and anti Tea Party vote went elsewhere (Santorum and Romney).

    As did the evangelical vote (Santorum), the rich (Romney), and the old (Romney again).

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